Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Silobreaker "Truthiness" - Effects From Financial Meltdown

As much as we would like to (and probably should), we rarely find the time to blog about Silobreaker. So there is normally quite some time between our posts. However, considering the unprecedented turn of events in the financial markets, here are a few "algorithmic" insights into the situation.

Silobreaker Trends Search provides media attention trends based on mentions in the news. Essentially, it enables users to gauge trends from what the aggregate press corps is writing about. We are also about to introduce "Tracks" in Silobreaker. Tracks will enable enterprise users to define what they are tracking from a media monitoring perspective.

Here are few general tracks that we have already set up for everyone's use:
  • Rate Hike
  • Rate Cut
  • Oil Price Higher
  • Oil Price Lower
  • Dollar Weaker
  • Dollar Stronger

Each Track has been defined through a variety of rules and terms to enable a much broader approach than just single keyword-based alert-systems. By using these Tracks in Trends Search we can gauge what media are focusing on and how it changes over time.

So by looking at the relative share between Rate Hike and Rate Cut based on media's attention to the respective scenarios, we get the following picture:

Click here to go to the chart.

We have also filtered the press coverage for the chart above to only include news about the Federal Reserve to provide a more specific and multi-dimensional search result. So again, the chart shows the relative focus between Rate Hike and Rate Cut in Fed-related news. The chart seems to suggest a strong anticipation of an actual rate cut by the Fed later today. Is it an accurate forecast by media or are they just trying to "talk up" the market? We'll soon know.

Here's the same but filtered on Bank of England related news:

Click here to go to the chart.

What about in European Central Bank related news?

Click here to go to the chart.

Now, let's switch to media's reporting on oil prices and the relative focus between "Oil Prices Higher" and "Oil Prices Lower":

Click here to go to the chart.

..and finally the US dollar and the relative media attention between "Dollar Stronger" and "Dollar Weaker":

Click here
to go to the chart.

I'll leave the interpretation to the reader, but as always with this blog, the purpose is to promote the easy use and benefits of Silobreaker. The above analysis took no more than a couple of minutes to complete.

Kristofer Mansson, CEO

The trend charts that Silobreaker extracts and visualizes are not pre-determined or manually edited in any way. All Silobreaker’s search results are deduced by algorithms performing semantic and statistical analyses of tens of thousands of articles every day. Sounds complicated? Well, the equivalent manual research effort would be more or less impossible. Silobreaker's search results offer auto-generated insight “live” and the graphical results are updated dynamically as new articles are being published and the search is re-run.

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